Great preparation or good luck?

At the weekend, two aircraft flew incredibly low over the stadium in Cape Town ahead of the Springboks v All Blacks Test. It was spectacular. It was dramatic. My immediate reaction was: Damn that was close! Surely that's AI.

There was clearly significant planning behind the flyover. Experienced pilots, rehearsals, calculations and preparation would have gone into producing those few extraordinary seconds. And it worked. But does a successful outcome automatically make it a good decision? What of the consequences if it went wrong?

Another spectacular fly over in South Africa......but this was different.

What if a referee did it?

Imagine a referee taking an unnecessary risk during a major game. They gamble on something they haven't clearly seen. They ignore an established process because they're confident they've got it covered. They take a position that leaves them exposed. And they get away with it. Would we congratulate them or would a good coach ask: "Why did you take that risk?"

One of the traps in performance is judging the quality of a decision purely by its outcome. Good outcome = good decision. Bad outcome = bad decision. But high performance isn't that simple.

A referee can make an excellent decision and still experience a poor outcome. Equally, they can make a poor decision and get away with it. Sometimes luck disguises itself as performance.

Preparation isn't about eliminating risk

Referees operate in an environment filled with uncertainty. So do athletes and leaders. The objective isn't to eliminate risk. It's to understand and manage it.

Good preparation helps us recognise situations earlier, understand potential consequences and establish principles that guide us when the pressure arrives.

It allows us to ask:

• What am I trying to achieve?

• What could go wrong?

• What is the consequence if it does?

• Is the potential reward worth the risk?

• Do I actually need to take this risk?

That last question matters. Because courage and unnecessary risk aren't the same thing. We want courageous referees. We want people prepared to make difficult decisions under enormous pressure. But sometimes the highest-performance decision isn't the spectacular one. It's the disciplined one.

Great Preparation or Good Luck?

At Mode Performance Coaching, much of our work is about helping people prepare for those moments when pressure, uncertainty and interference enter the equation. We can't prepare someone for every situation they might encounter.

But we can help them develop the clarity, habits and thinking that allow them to respond when the unexpected happens.

And when we review performance, perhaps we need to go beyond asking:

"What happened?"

Instead ask: "Knowing what we knew at the time, was that a good decision?"

Because if we only celebrate successful outcomes, we risk reinforcing poor decisions.

The Cape Town flyover worked. It looked incredible. Nothing went wrong. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't question the level of risk involved. The same applies to referees, athletes and leaders.

Sometimes "we pulled it off" isn't evidence of great preparation and execution.

And sometimes we just got lucky. The challenge is knowing the difference.